New Delhi, Dec 6 (EFE).- India’s economy might grow by 6.9 percent in the current fiscal year, the World Bank said on Tuesday, slightly improving its growth outlook from a 6.5 percent estimated earlier.
The bank said India had demonstrated “resilience despite a challenging external environment,” and the country was “relatively well positioned to weather global spillovers compared to most other emerging markets.”
“The deteriorating external environment will weigh on India’s growth prospects,” the bank warned in the report “Navigating the Storm.”
The report argued that the Indian economy was “relatively insulated from global spillovers … partly because India has a large domestic market and is less exposed to international trade flows.”
“The report finds that while a one percentage point decline in growth in the US is associated with a 0.4 percentage point decline in India’s growth, the effect is around 1.5 times larger for other emerging economies.”
Analysis for growth spillovers from the EU and China also yields similar results.
Along with the coronavirus pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a storm in the world economy.
The upward revision of the Indian GDP to 6.9 percent from 6.5 percent (in October 2022) is due to “a strong outturn in India in the second quarter (July-September) of the 2022-23 financial year.”
The report predicted that the Indian economy would grow at a slightly lower rate of 6.6 percent in the 2023-24 fiscal year.
India’s central bank has projected a 7 percent growth for the fiscal year that ends on Mar.31, 2023.
India registered 13.5 percent growth in the first quarter and 6.3 percent in the second.
The growth forecasts for 2022-23 are less than the 8.7 percent registered in the previous fiscal year.
The Indian rupee is also at a record low as the country tries to ease inflationary pressure, currently above the six percent acceptable level. EFE